Sirotablog
David Sirota is a political journalist and nationally syndicated newspaper columnist at Creators Syndicate. David writes about political corruption, globalization and working-class economic issues often ignored by both of America's political parties.
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July 27, 2007 11:15 AM
Is Richardson Quietly Surging?
Maybe for the first time in my adulthood, I don't have any strong preference among the Democratic presidential nominees and am not in anyone's camp. I feel blessed to be able to sit back and objectively watch a pretty impressive group of candidates knowing that I'd be just fine with any of the top six (particularly the top four) emerging as my nominee.
So far, the punditry seems obsessed with the Hillary Clinton v. Barack Obama race, with John Edwards lurking just behind them. But based on recent polling, are they missing the clear emergence of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson?
While the national polls continue to show Richardson flat-lining around three percent...
...that's such a useless measurement of the strength of a presidential candidacy since we elect our nominees in a series of primaries and caucuses (albeit more compressed than ever).What I find to be noteworthy is the clear uptick for Richardson in recent Iowa and New Hampshire polls -- early states where he's been focusing his time and money:
As you can clearly see, Richardson's polling average has passed John Edwards in New Hampshire and is on the heels of Barack Obama in Iowa. And between Iowa and New Hampshire is the Nevada Caucus, a state where Clinton currently dominates but where about 10 points separates Obama, Edwards and Richardson.
Certainly, if Clinton were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire it would be hard to imagine she could be denied the nomination given the series of large-state primaries soon thereafter.
But what if Edwards hangs-on and wins Iowa, with Richardson a strong third (ahead of Obama), and then five days later Richardson does well in the western state of Nevada (finishing second or third), and then three days later he finishes third, defeating Edwards -- all of which is entirely plausible based on current polling?
Would Richardson become the media darling just as the race heads into California and New York and Florida, all large states with large Hispanic populations?
Obviously, it's too far out to make predictions. Few of us expected that John Kerry could rise from single-digits to becoming the nominee in a matter of weeks. Anything is possible. But I have to wonder whether the media is so focused on the Clinton-Obama-Edwards race that they're missing the dark horse that seems to be trending in the early states at just the right time.
Food for thought...
(Be sure to checkout Pollster.com for more of these awesome polling graphics.)
--Mark Nickolas
(cross-posted at Rocky Mountain Report)
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About David Sirota
David Sirota is a political journalist and nationally syndicated newspaper columnist at Creators Syndicate. He is the New York Times bestselling author of Hostile Takeover. He lives in Denver, Colorado. His daily blog can be found at CREDO Action. He contributes regularly to the Denver Post's Web site, is a senior editor at In These Times magazine and is working on his second book. He has been profiled in Newsweek and the Rocky Mountain News and is widely known for his reporting on political corruption, globalization and working-class economic issues often ignored by both of America's political parties. Sirota serves as co-chair of the Progressive States Network, a 501(c)3 organization that supports state legislators and that is a partner of CREDO.
You can subscribe to Sirota's e-mail newsletter by going to davidsirota.com and signing up in the lefthand corner. To find out more about Sirota, download his official biography or see his recent media appearances. You can e-mail him at sirota@credoaction.com.
The views expressed on this blog are his own, and do not necessarily represent the views of Working Assets (publisher of CREDO Action) or the institutions Sirota works for.
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Discussion
People who helped ram through NAFTA like Clinton and Richardson will never get my vote and given that neither has repudiated that disaster neither deserves to be president.
I'd just assume stay home if either was selected as the democratic nominee.
I for one like Richardson and I'm not Hispanic. There just seems a ring of truth about him as a tough minded decent individual with good sense. However I am in agreement with D.S. that I don't have a strong feeling about anyone. Maybe it is because I do think Gore or Dean should be among our choices. I like a Dean/Webb ticket and make myself heard every time I get an email from headquarters which is often. I have gone so far as to say I will not vote for Obama or Clinton. Maybe everyone should express their choice to headquarters and we might yet get a more desirable choice. What say? It is not hard to get on the main party mailing lists. And they want replies ...with money attached. So somebody reads these replies.
I don't see the appeal of Richardson. I'd think if anyone moved into the "top tier" it would be Biden.
One thing about the hispanic population is that they don't turn out in sizeable numbers for non-hispanic politicos at least here in CA. I suspect it holds true in other states as well. BTW this is why the GOP has been able to kick the Democrats ass for the governorship despite being a minority in the state.
Richardson is the only one IMO capable of getting their vote.
I could see Richardson as VP. He'd be especially valuable at helping mend fences and re-establishing our credibility with world community.
Hillary is way too Republi-lite and "free" trade to be a good candidate for president. She'll continue to send our jobs overseas in droves.
Obama, I'm not sure about, I don't get warm fuzzies about a guy who seems to be using his election to the Senate less than four years ago as a springboard for a presidential nomination. Makes me wonder about his real agendas.
Maybe an Edwards/Richardson ticket.
IRCC its men who are governors who win presidential elections. That may mean that the race may boil down to Richardson vs. Romney fight.
For some reason senators rarely win, perhaps its because they don't have any real world experience managing anything bigger than their office staff and mouth.
As for Obama, he makes me feel uncomfortable. His senate track record is DLC'ish and he's done nothing to distinguish himself. He never took a stand on any issue at all. His campaign staff is full of WallStreet/Rubinite types not your typical pro-labor types. And has done basically run a campaign based on content-free speeches and vague platitudes and generalities like the "audacity of hope". This tells me, that Obama has no intention of ever leveling with the public about his true agenda. The man may very well be a wolf in sheeps clothing.
It would be lovely if he got elected and announced he has decided he was really a Muslim. And most of the women would probably start wearing burkas. I'm an agnostic and I can barely tolerate the religious mix now, so I'd have to leave the country and swim to Cuba or someplace if I had to tolerate that garbage. You're right. He may be a wolf in a black sheep's clothing. Waltc, what does ircc and your other numerous apprevs. mean? You're straining my brain to read your thoughtful comments. Give us no-brainers a break. Join Parity People's Party. Parity Democracy, Amazon or Barnes and Noble.com
IRCC - if I recall correctly
IMS - If memory serves
IMO - in my opinion
FWIW - for what its worth.
DLC - Democratic Leadership Council - basically a group of Democratic pols who push the agenda of big business in return for corporate cash. Hillary is the nominal head of the organization.
The best hope and chance we have for any real change is John Edwards..
America is blowing it by not paying more attention to Edwards and what he has to say and his solutions and his history of fighting for the little guy..
He is also evolving as I have witnessed and may surprise many as the primaries draw closer..
Obama has done our nation a great disservice as I see it with his candidacy misdirected to many and will never win..in the general election, and I have serious doubts Hillary can win in the general election either..there are many Democrats who do not want to vote for her ever..
I was leaning toward Richardson based on his resume and most of his stances until I watched the debates. He bombed bigtime. The guy sucks on TV. He just sucks. Unless America truly wants to quit Iraq immediately, I don't think he's got a prayer.
Leaning toward Edwards now. I'm a bit wary after what happened in '04, but the guy keeps pushing all my buttons in the smartest way. He's running a great campaign.
I thought DLC meant Democrat LOSERSHIP Committee.
Seems like every candidate who listens to them winds up losing.
Butte
Yeah the L does stand for LOSERSHIP. The problem is, is that the DLC has done tremendous damage to the Democratic party. The problem is K Street saw that the DLC was radioactive among the rank and file and as a result have found other means of influencing pols. Namely finding the most greedy Democrats and offering them lots of cash.
These pols are not DINOS but merely crooks in the tradition of Jesse Unruh and Slick Willie Brown - the man who ruined the CA Democratic state legislature and made DeLay look like a choir boy.
Dave,
Bill Richardson is on the very far left wing of the "One World/Open Borders" vs "Preservation of National Sovereignty"/Secure Borders/Immigration Restrictionism" debate. The former "Anchor Baby" would be the absolute kiss of death in the general election if he somehow got the nomination. Have you been paying attention to what happened in France in their last election?? The Border Security/Immigration Restrictionist candidate won a clear victory that was way outside of the predicted margin by the many of the pro immigration biased mainstream pollsters. Gee sounds a lot like the Immigration debate in this country.
Also did you happen to notice what occurred during last months "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" debate. I know you were busy moving to Denver, but still. Every non biased independent poll showed that even self identifying Democrats came out against "CIR" by a clear majority.
Bill Richardson may be experiencing a brief surge in support from Latino voters and the left-wing Multiculturalist fringe who feel Hillary and Obama have not pandered enough to the likes of La Raza and LULAC, if you can believe that. But Richardson loony ideas like he reveal in the YouTube debate of handing out free healthcare coverage no questions asked to Illegal Aliens would absolutely led to a crushing of the Democratic party in Nov 2008. Sorry, Richard may be a skilled diplomat. But he is governor of New Mexico which outside of the massive government funding it receives, is a rather poor state with an large Mexican-American population and not very representative of the rest of America.
Also I thought it was funny how Hillary and Obama in spite of the all their pandering for the Latino vote coyly avoided the opportunity to express their opinions on the question of proposed Universal healthcare covering Illegal Aliens.
Bill Richardson supported NAFTA and open borders. His pro-gun record doesn't fool me one fuckin' bit. David, why aren't you supporting better candidates such as Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich. People like Richardson and Edwards are all too easily sucker punched by the corporatist machine. Kucinich and Gravel, on the other hand, are much more closer to progressivism.
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